Causes of Declining Growth
نویسنده
چکیده
From 1979 to 1989, growth in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to only 2.5 percent per year. From 1989 through the first half of 1992, growth has slowed further to only 0.5 percent, with growth reduced about 2 percent below normal due to transitory cyclical factors. Thus, either way you look at it, what is alternately termed trend, secular, steady-state, or capacity growth has slowed to about 2.5 percent. This growth is very slow compared to the trend growth of nearly 4 percent experienced in 1948-65 or even the 3.1 percent of 1965-79. In the perspective of this century, recent U.S. growth is slow but not unprecedented: for example, trend real GNP growth was only about 2.25 percent during 1929-48 as the capital stock fell due to the Depression and World War 11.
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